Middle East Escalation Raises Economic Red Flags for Cyprus

The escalating crisis in the Middle East is expected to have repercussions for Cyprus’s economy, with concerns focusing on tourism, supply chains and fuel costs.

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Speaking to Politis, the Secretary General of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Philokypros Rousounides, said developments are being monitored “with particular concern”, noting that contacts were held over the weekend with chambers abroad to coordinate responses and assess potential impacts.

“Unfortunately, once again within a short period of time, disruptions to the supply chain and commercial activity appear likely,” he said.

Rousounides warned that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a sharp rise in oil prices, with both direct and indirect consequences for business costs. He expressed hope that inflationary pressures can be avoided but acknowledged that the risk remains.

Tourism first to feel the pressure

Tourism, the main pillar of the Cypriot economy, is expected to be among the first sectors affected.

“In such situations, tourism is unfortunately the first industry to be hit,” Rousounides said, adding that consultations are under way with tourism partners to mitigate the impact and manage the situation.

He indicated that a slowdown in bookings, particularly early-season pre-bookings, is likely.

Fuel price increases expected within days

The President of the Pancyprian Association of Petrol Station Owners, Savvas Prokopiou, told CNA that fuel prices have already recorded an increase of 10 to 12 percent since Friday, linked to the war in Iran. He added that the rise is expected to be reflected at petrol stations over the next 10 days.

“We are certainly expecting increases,” he said, while noting that the current rise is not as sharp as the spike seen at the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

He said the relatively moderate global increase in the price of crude oil so far offers some reassurance. If the international price stabilises below $80 per barrel, he added, it would be a positive sign.

Employers’ federation sets up task force

The Cyprus Employers and Industrialists Federation has also moved to support businesses facing potential disruptions arising from the Middle East crisis. A special task force has been established to assist companies in managing and navigating operational challenges linked to the evolving situation.

Businesses are now bracing for a period of uncertainty, as geopolitical instability once again tests the resilience of Cyprus’s open and externally dependent economy.

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