A framework deal between the United States and Iran could be signed within the next 24 hours, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, as both sides move towards ending months of conflict in the Middle East.
The final text of the agreement has already been prepared and an electronic signing is expected imminently, followed by technical-level talks next week, Sharif added.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the memorandum in Islamabad will not be signed on Sunday, according to state media reports from Tehran on Saturday.
Baghaei added that the possibility of signing the memorandum in the coming days cannot be ruled out.
However, he urged caution over any speculation regarding the signing date, citing delays on the part of the other side.
An Iranian source close to Iran's negotiating team, meanwhile, was quoted by Iranian news agency Fars saying that assertions of a completed agreement and a planned signing ceremony in Geneva on Sunday were inaccurate.
“The process of evaluation and decision-making on the Iranian side has not yet been completed,” the source said, according to Fars.
A deal of necessity
Speaking prior to Iran's denial of an agreement, international relations expert Petros Zarounas told CNA that the emerging agreement is being described as a “deal of necessity”, while urging caution until it is formally signed and implemented.
“Given how often expectations of peace have been disproved, we should remain cautious until we see the official documents signed and applied,” he said.
Zarounas stressed that current assessments are based on reported leaks and should be treated accordingly.
Why both sides need de-escalation
According to Zarounas, both Washington and Tehran have strong incentives to seek a way out of the crisis.
For the United States, the upcoming November elections and declining popularity of Donald Trump increase pressure for a diplomatic success. Further escalation, especially involving ground operations, would be politically and strategically costly.
For Iran, economic constraints are critical. Alongside sanctions, US actions have effectively blocked Iranian ports, while Tehran’s earlier closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained its own economy.
“The smooth functioning of Iran’s economy is essential for the survival of the regime,” Zarounas said.
Mixed outcome for Washington
Zarounas said the US appears to have achieved some objectives while falling short on others.
- Regime change, initially cited as a core objective, has not been achieved.
- On the nuclear programme, the US appears closer to success. Around 440 kilograms of enriched uranium at 60 per cent purity are expected to be diluted under international supervision and possibly removed from Iran.
- On ballistic missiles, however, the objective of limiting Iran’s capabilities has not been met. Around 70 per cent of the programme is believed to have survived military strikes, meaning capabilities can be restored over time.
Proxy networks remain a sticking point
A key unresolved issue concerns Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah, Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis.
The US aim of ending Tehran’s support for these groups is unlikely to be fully met. However, the agreement may ensure a form of regional stabilisation, with these actors refraining from direct violence.
Zarounas noted that countries such as Israel and Gulf states would retain the right to self-defence in the event of renewed attacks.
Economic relief tied to compliance
Any financial benefits for Iran, including the unfreezing of assets or easing of sanctions, will depend on its behaviour in upcoming nuclear negotiations.
“There is a mechanism linking actions to benefits,” Zarounas said. “If Iran takes steps such as uranium de-enrichment, it will receive economic incentives in return.”
He described the process as dynamic and potentially fragile, warning that compliance by both sides will be crucial to avoid renewed tensions.
Sources: CNA, Fars, Reuters
