There is a growing tendency in Europe to treat the war in Ukraine as a conflict that, if not over, has at least settled into a frozen state. Front lines no longer shift dramatically, diplomacy moves slowly and daily life across the rest of Europe continues. Citizens have become accustomed to images from Ukrainian cities, statements by political leaders and new sanctions packages.
Yet this sense of stagnation is misleading.
The incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany serves as a reminder that the war is no longer confined to Ukraine's battlefields. The German government has attributed to Russia an attempted drone attack involving an explosive device discovered near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft. Berlin has spoken of Russian involvement and called for action, while debate across Europe has intensified over how to respond to what many see as a broader campaign of hybrid attacks.
A drone at an airport. A fire at a facility. A damaged cable. A cyberattack. An act of sabotage. A disinformation campaign.
Viewed individually, each incident may appear limited, even manageable. But when such incidents occur repeatedly and across multiple countries, they cease to be isolated episodes and begin to resemble a coordinated campaign.
That is precisely the challenge posed by hybrid warfare. It does not present a clear threshold that automatically demands an equally clear response.
Europe has traditionally understood security in terms of borders.
The problem is that modern conflict no longer requires tanks crossing a frontier in order to threaten a country.
The fact that we no longer witness dramatic daily changes on the battlefield does not mean the war in Ukraine has stopped generating risks. On the contrary, Europe appears to be entering a period in which the consequences of the conflict are increasingly manifesting themselves, in different forms, on European soil.
Europe's response cannot be limited to condemning each new incident as it occurs.
What is required is a different understanding of security.
Europe therefore faces a difficult dilemma. It must strengthen its deterrence capabilities without sliding into uncontrolled escalation. It must respond to hybrid attacks without allowing every incident to bring it one step closer to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. At the same time, it must maintain support for Ukraine, because abandoning Kyiv would not eliminate the danger. It could instead bring that danger even closer.
Europe is not at war with Russia.
That remains an important reality and should continue to be so.
However, that does not mean Europe stands outside the conflict.
Its security, economy, infrastructure and social cohesion are already being affected by it.
