A Washington Examiner analysis following the Erhurman victory in the occupied territories got a noise running that Donald Trump was about to get involved in the Cyprus issue.
The American web news outlet claimed that the US President had the capability of giving Turkey what the UN couldn't, namely more defence cooperation, energy or commercial deals and get Europe to support them, in exchange for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the island and a renewed plan of action to slice up authority in Cyprus, as the Examiner puts it.
It wasn't so much in the way of a government source, but a hypothesis based scenario on the Donald Trump intentions. Having said that, a number of Turkish media, presuming that the Washington Examiner is part of the deep establishment, believed that the American plan was the real deal.
The Turkish belief was further strengthened in the most official manner possible, following a statement by Tayip Erdogan at a meeting of the Islamic Cooperation Organisation financial and commercial committee, to the tune that 'Ankara is receiving strong messages of Cyprus being added to the menu of the imperialist game being played in the region'.
To which Christodoulides responded, 'the only imperialist here is Turkey'.
The noise that drowned the space in the Turkish opposition press is not confirmed as a tangible Trump plan on Cyprus. What seems to actually be the case, is the prospect of a future White House involvement in solution efforts, as part a new strategic European vision, but more closely looking at the Eastern Mediterranean too.
The competition between the former Cold War forces and the US effort to counter the Sinorussian axis in the region has forged conditions of renewed American involvement.
The Big Picture
The American East Med flame is reigniting at various levels, with energy on the frontline of American foreign policy and the Cyprus issue seemingly attaching itself to this framework. Besides, there is interdependence here, as maritime zones and jurisdictions in the area cannot be resolved without the normalisation of Greco-Turkish relations and the solution to the Cyprus issue.
Developments in the wider region indicate that the American strategic plan includes certain fundamental steps, such as disengaging Europe from Russian natural gas, the Greece-Ukraine energy corridor, putting the Turkey-Libya memorandum problem to bed and the IMEC financial corridor, connecting India with Europe through the Middle East. In addition, the US also aims at blocking the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, which currently provides Beijing with geostrategic depth.
American moves
Thursday and Friday saw significant energy deals signed at the 6th InterAtlantic Ministerial Meeting in Athens, with three American ministers and a deputy minister attending, alongside 25 EU ministers anfd 17 representatives of multinational companies.
Foremost amongst the deals, the Exxon Mobil exploration at offshore plot 2 in the northwestern Ionian sea as well as the Greek purchase of American LNG starting in 2030 and over 20 years. The LNG, with Greece as a gateway, will be carried through to Southeastern and Central Europe and through the vertical corridor to Ukraine.
The goal is to disengage from Russian natural gas. And Washington won't stop with Greece, but has forged an approach for the wider Eastern Mediterranean.
On Tuesday, the oil ministry of Egypt announced a memorandum of understanding with Exxon Mobil, taking over the exploration of yet another offshore plot. Beyond that, American officials visited Libya, sounding out the return of Chevron, that has now earned exploration rights on four plots south of Crete and is raising production at Israel's Leviathan deposit.
The US is also exerting pressure on Israel to validate the natural gas export agreement to Egypt, with Tel Aviv resisting and the American energy minister cancelling his scheduled visit to the country recently.
3+1
The renewed American interest is also clearly indicated by Washington's initiative to reset the 3+1 format of Cyprus, Greece, Israel and the US, with a joint statement last Thursday in Athens reaffirming their commitment to supporting the energy plans in the region and East Med regional stability. And making sure there is continuity, by scheduling a Washington meeting in the second trimester of 2026.
Additionally, remarks by the Israeli energy minister that the US will revivee plans to build a pipeline to Europe through Cyprus and Greece, excluding Turkey, have created the strong impression that that the 3+1 is an anti-Turkish alliance. But for all intents and purposes, this is a statement by an Israeli politician to the Jerusalem Post, clearly aimed at internal consumption.
Turkey
Ankara will not be involved in all energy projects, as will none of the East Med countries. Each work is different and involves a varied combination of countries. But the Americans have a strong presence in several initiatives, one of which does not exclude Turkey. Credible sources told 'Politis' that the Greek PM's proposal to create a multilateral 5x5 format made up of regional coastline countries (Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey and Libya), is connected to US energy designs.
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan did not rule out the 5x5 format, clarifying that Greco-Turkish differences can be solved through dialogue. He spoke the same way on Cyprus. Seemingly realising what's at stake and on Cyprus soil last week, during former President Clerides' memorial service, PM Mitsotakis made sure everyone got the message of 'pseudopatriotic remarks forge future failures'.
In addition, Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Centre Charles Ellinas told 'Politis' that the Americans plan to include Turkey in their massive energy and financial cooperation project, from the Caspian sea through to the Mediterranean. He noted that the US wants to raise the natural gas output from Ajerbaijan to Europe, through Turkey, but also the Iraqi oil contribution. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barak meanwhile, ruled out the possibility of a conflict between Israel and Turkey. Despite reactions, it was once again established that remarks by certain politicians are purely made for internal consumption.
For example, publicly, Tayip Erdogan is the protector of the Muslim world and talks tough against the West, while backstage and at practical level, where it counts, he still cooperates with western states. Ankara does have a crucial role to play in Washington's strategic designs. Donald Trump realises that Turkish foreign policy serves the strategic autonomy dogma and he's ok to go along with that, knowing that the country can help him anchor Russia in the future. Trump's goal is to weaken Moscow, forcing the Kremlin by his side. And Turkey is the only NATO country that has good relations with Russia.
Key Personalities
American moves to end East Med conflicts have a strategic character and serve the American effort of establishing the US in the region once again, limiting the influence of Russia and China, that are utilising competition between states in order to extend their influence. China seems to be doing that through the Cyprus issue. It is offering support to Nicosia in exchange for strategic cooperation.
So having these considerations and philosophy in mind, Donald Trump will at some point engage with Cyprus issue efforts. This is actually why his choice of ambassadors in Turkey, Greece and Cyprus are quite deliberate. The people he's selected are part of his inner circle, don't belong to the diplomatic corps and certainly don't operate the traditional way. Tom Barak is a peronal friend, Kimberley Gyllfoyle in Athens is his son's ex-fiancee, while in Cyprus, the chosen one is his close friend and an election campaign sponsor, John Breslow.
In addition, Trump's senior advisor to Africa is Massad Bulos, an in law, who has taken action in Libya, preparing the ground for the return of Chevron and dealing with the issues created by the Turkey-Libya memorandum in smoothing out regional maritime jurisdictions. So the US President's close associates and friends hold key positions in the area, providing Trump with the capacity to implement and on a number of occasions, impose his plans. With Gaza, a case in point.
So there's an American President in place, working unconventionally along with his inner circle, as he tries to control the East Med. The question is whether Cyprus can benefit from these developments and utilise American interest in order to settle its long standing political problem. All countries in the region will flow along with the US, but they will also want to gain as much as they can. The more one resists instead of adjusting to this new reality, the bigger the cost.|