Progress on the Cyprus problem is moving slowly, as the new Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman must first be fully briefed and then meet with Ankara to agree on a new course of action before any real movement can occur.
For years, former Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar, in close coordination with Turkey, sought to shift the parameters of the negotiations by introducing the concept of “sovereign equality”, a framework that implied the potential creation of two separate states on the island. This position, however, has never been accepted by the international community.
Erhürman, by contrast, built his electoral campaign on a return to a federal solution, as provided for in United Nations resolutions. He also promised Turkish Cypriot citizens a “more European” future and greater prosperity, along with a series of confidence-building measures to improve everyday life for both communities on the island.
Balancing federal vision and Ankara’s control
The central question now is whether Erhürman can alter the trajectory of the Cyprus negotiations without Ankara’s consent. Few hold any illusions on this point. As political observers acknowledge, responsibility for the current deadlock does not lie with Erhürman himself - and attempts to assign blame to him are seen as misplaced.
At present, the Turkish Cypriot negotiating team is understood to be preparing its proposals ahead of Erhürman’s forthcoming meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. Key decisions on the Turkish Cypriot side’s stance are expected to emerge from that meeting.
This is also the main reason for the delay in a meeting between Erhürman and President Nikos Christodoulides, as well as for the postponement of the visit to Cyprus by the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, María Ángela Holguín.
A delicate mission
Erhürman’s challenge is to persuade Ankara that both sides should return to the negotiating table with a view to resuming discussions on a federal settlement.
To achieve this, he is likely to focus on two key conditions already outlined publicly:
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Recognition of the political equality of the Turkish Cypriots.
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Agreement on a clear timetable for the completion of negotiations.
The first of these - political equality - is widely considered a given, as it has long been recognised within the established parameters of the Cyprus talks. The second, concerning a defined timeframe, will require further negotiation and consensus with the Greek Cypriot side.
If, as President Christodoulides has stated, the talks can resume from where they left off at Crans-Montana, then time should not be a major obstacle - since, as many have said, “Cyprus was only a mile away from a solution.”