Fuel prices in Cyprus have shown signs of easing in recent weeks, but uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East continues to make reliable forecasts difficult, according to the Consumer Protection Service and the Cyprus Fuel Retailers Association.
The Director of the Consumer Protection Service, Constantinos Karagiorgis, said data available to the service show that since 10 May, the retail price of diesel has fallen by an average of around nine cents per litre. In contrast, the average retail price of 95-octane petrol increased by approximately five cents per litre over the same period.
Uncertainty rules all
Karagiorgis said that if recent trends in Platts fuel prices continue, further reductions in retail diesel prices are expected in the coming weeks, while 95-octane petrol prices could also begin to decline.
However, he cautioned that the current international environment remains highly unpredictable.
“At this stage, it is not possible to make reliable forecasts regarding the future course of fuel prices,” he said, noting that uncertainty in global markets remains elevated. The continuation of hostilities and the absence of a definitive agreement concerning the conflict involving Iran continue to affect international energy markets, resulting in significant fluctuations in fuel prices.
“As a result, any developments in the geopolitical environment could have an immediate impact on the cost of petroleum products,” he added.
Downward trend
Despite the uncertainty, Karagiorgis said available data suggest that diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an agreement have contributed to a decline in international fuel prices. Since 20 May, a downward trend has been recorded in Platts prices, which reflect the rates at which refineries sell fuel to the market.
He said these reductions are expected to be gradually reflected in retail prices, although there is no guarantee that the downward trend will continue.
“The uncertainty remains high and significant volatility in international energy markets may persist until a final agreement is reached and hostilities come to an end,” he said. “For this reason, any assessment of future price developments should be treated with caution until there are clear signs of de-escalation and market stabilisation.”
Purchase from the north
Meanwhile, Christodoulos Christodoulou, Vice-President and spokesperson for the Cyprus Fuel Retailers Association, said recent predictions by the association regarding modest fuel price reductions had been confirmed.
He noted that diesel and petrol prices both fell by around two cents per litre from Monday and said further reductions of between two and three cents per litre are expected in the coming days as new fuel shipments arrive. The anticipated decreases are expected to affect 95-octane and 98-octane petrol, as well as diesel.
Christodoulou said fuel consumption remains at normal levels across most of Cyprus, with the exception of Nicosia and the Famagusta district, where some consumers continue to purchase fuel in the occupied areas.
He added that reductions of two to three cents per litre are unlikely to have a noticeable impact on household budgets.
“For consumers to genuinely feel the benefit, price reductions need to be in the region of six to seven cents per litre and repeated two or three times,” he said, noting that recent increases had been of a similar magnitude.
Volatile market
Looking ahead, Christodoulou said it remains impossible to make long-term predictions. He noted that international crude oil prices, which had recently risen from around $92 per barrel to $96 per barrel, have since stabilised.
However, he warned that if crude oil prices climb to $100 per barrel, fuel prices could begin rising again.
He also stressed that international crude oil prices continue to fluctuate and are often influenced by statements made by US President Donald Trump, underlining the sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical and political developments.
