By George Koumoullis
Let me clarify from the outset that the Turkish Cypriot community is not threatened by any form of physical extermination. It is, however, undeniably threatened by gradual demographic, political, economic and cultural assimilation by Turkey.
If this trend is not reversed soon, there may no longer be Turkish Cypriots who feel that Greek Cypriots are their compatriots with whom a settlement can be negotiated. Different cultural backgrounds and historical experiences could, in themselves, become insurmountable obstacles to peaceful coexistence.
Unfortunately, there are no official figures regarding the size of the population in the north. According to research and data presented two years ago by Turkish Cypriot trade unionist Sener Elcil, the population in the northern part of Cyprus stands at approximately one million, with Turkish Cypriots accounting for only 15% of that total.
This estimate is reinforced, he notes, by the fact that the total number of mobile phone subscriptions in the north is around one million. If one considers that children under the age of 12 generally do not possess mobile phones, the conclusion drawn from this indicator is that the population must amount to at least one million. It therefore appears to have slightly surpassed the population living in the areas controlled by the Republic of Cyprus, which stands at 975,000.
In other words, the Turkish Cypriot community has become a small minority as a result of Turkey's systematic policy of transferring settlers from eastern and central Turkey to the north.
The greatest blow to the Turkish Cypriot community, however, is its cultural and religious transformation. Historically, Turkish Cypriots were a strongly secular society with a liberal lifestyle, western European influences and a relatively loose relationship with religion, something recalled by those who lived in mixed villages before 1974.
By contrast, the populations arriving from the interior of Anatolia are considerably more conservative and religious.
Erdoğan's Turkey is attempting to Islamise the north through the establishment of religious schools (Imam Hatip), the revision of school textbooks to remove the distinct "Cypriot" identity of Turkish Cypriots and the construction of large mosques.
Those who visit the north will undoubtedly have seen the enormous Suat Günsel Mosque, built by Turkey, which is among the largest mosques in the Middle East. It has capacity for approximately 10,000 worshippers and features six minarets and 62 domes.
When one also takes into account the alleged manipulation of electoral outcomes through the mass granting of citizenship by successive administrations to Turkish nationals, a practice that alters the electoral body, together with complete economic dependence on Ankara, the meaning of the "disappearance" of Turkish Cypriots becomes clearer.
The historic, secular and Cyprus-centred Turkish Cypriot community is gradually being replaced by a population fully aligned with Ankara's political, social and religious directions.
If a settlement is not achieved urgently, partition, whether de facto or de jure, will inevitably become the final outcome.
The disappearance of Turkish Cypriots inevitably favours the continuation of the status quo, much to the satisfaction of those who support partition.
They are mistaken in believing that no solution is the best solution and that maintaining the status quo is somehow the lesser evil. They fail, or pretend to fail, to understand that the current deadlock in the Cyprus problem cannot constitute a permanent answer.
Whether the northern part of Cyprus is annexed by Turkey or remains a protectorate, we should not forget that in such a scenario we would be faced with a 180-kilometre border with a hostile and militarily powerful country.
If the United Nations eventually leaves Cyprus, and at some point it will because its presence is by definition temporary, what security will remain?
Cross-border incidents already occur today. What would happen after a serious incident? Who would guarantee security and stability?
Furthermore, in 20 to 30 years the population in the north could be several times larger than our own, creating pressures for "living space", to use a term associated with Hitler.
It is deeply ironic that supporters of maintaining the status quo describe a bizonal bicommunal federation as a "Turkish-designed" solution.
The belief that the current situation provides security is misleading, because stagnation continually entrenches the realities created by the invasion.
If there truly is a solution designed according to Turkish preferences, it is the perpetuation of the current situation. Even then, "perpetuation" is a misleading term because such a situation can never be genuinely permanent.
Calls for the "liberation of the occupied territories", with their clear implication of military conflict, constitute the most nationally irresponsible slogan.
The slogan was first voiced by the Archbishop and was later adopted by ELAM.
Invoking a military solution completely ignores the actual capabilities of the Republic of Cyprus and cultivates dangerous illusions in a society that has already paid a heavy price for war.
Serious political leadership should recognise that such slogans offer no realistic prospect, only false hopes and risks that Cyprus cannot afford.
Even children understand that Cyprus cannot militarily retake the north and that war would be a suicidal choice.
The solution can only be political and diplomatic. Either a bizonal bicommunal federation is achieved, or the status quo continues, with the risk of complete Turkification in the short or long term.
Unfortunately, the only feasible solution, the bizonal bicommunal federation supported by the United Nations, the European Union and Greece, is moving further away.
This is because the negotiating process is no longer effectively being conducted with Turkish Cypriots, a community that is shrinking demographically and politically, but with Turkey, which, unlike Turkish Cypriots, advocates a two-state solution.
*George Koumoullis is an Economist and Social Scientist.
