The resounding victory of opposition leader Tufan Erhürman, elected head of the Turkish Cypriot community with 62% of the vote against 35% for his opponent, was a clear expression of the current will of the Turkish Cypriots - not only on matters of daily life but, crucially, on the Cyprus problem.
This coherent expression of political and social intent comes amid a worsening of daily conditions in the community over the past five years. It also follows the failure of a politically loaded experiment: the attempted normalisation of a two-state model in Cyprus, which ultimately yielded no results, not even within a low-expectations, tightly managed framework.
Unprecedented reaction by Turkish Cypriots
Erhürman’s first-round victory in the so-called election was not just a routine political change. It marked a deeper shift - a redirection of the Turkish Cypriot community’s trajectory in matters of social and economic strategy and, more importantly, in the defence of its identity, which has been under constant pressure from Turkey’s growing influence.
Once again, the Turkish Cypriot community reacts and sends a message in all directions, signalling its vision for the future and its stance on a Cyprus that should balance both unifying elements and self-governance.
As the new leader of the Republican Turkish Party, Erhürman joins the ranks of previous figures such as Mehmet Ali Talat and Mustafa Akıncı. He is expected to respond realistically to the prospect of restarting talks for a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality - in line with UN resolutions.
Realism and pragmatism
In short, after five years of complete stagnation under outgoing leader Ersin Tatar, or eight if including the post-Crans-Montana period, the Greek Cypriot side now faces a counterpart who does not reject the idea of a solution outright, nor demands a two-state formula as a prerequisite. A formula which, in any case, the international community has never accepted, and clearly is not ready to.
Yet the importance of this electoral result is not limited to the Cyprus problem. Rather, Erhürman’s rise reflects wider political and social processes underway within the Turkish Cypriot community. The momentum surrounding his leadership cannot be interpreted simply as a pro-federation vote. More than anything, it is a vote of protest and a search for a way out.
Settlers in the equation
Erhürman’s win also highlights a shift among second- and third-generation settlers, those born and raised in the occupied areas. A close analysis of the results reveals their increasing integration into the Turkish Cypriot community and alignment with its problems, especially among younger generations. The election outcome suggests a distancing from full alignment with Turkey.
These individuals have come to realise that isolation and uncertainty cannot continue indefinitely. This has pushed them to support a leader and political direction promising normalisation, and, potentially, international recognition through a solution to the Cyprus problem. That, at least, is the message Erhürman has consistently communicated.
Failed experiment
Defeated leader Ersin Tatar spent five years with clear backing from Ankara and the promise of pursuing international recognition for the pseudo-state. Half a decade later, the outcome is disappointing: not a single country recognised the entity, and the Turkish Cypriots remain internationally isolated.
Erhürman’s election could, under the right conditions, act as a catalyst for a new phase in the Cyprus problem, reviving dialogue and diplomatic movement. It does not guarantee a solution, but it creates the environment for efforts to resume - at a time when the passage of time increasingly undermines the prospects for reunification, and the reality on the ground edges ever closer to permanent partition.
More than anything, this political change will act as a mirror for all involved. It will reveal who genuinely seeks a workable solution - and who simply manages the deadlock.
During the campaign, Erhürman made several key points:
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He will push for a serious restart of negotiations on the Cyprus issue, noting that the recent period was “lost” in terms of progress.
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He views the process as international, not just a matter between two communities, involving the United Nations, Turkey, and Greece.
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For both Turkish Cypriots and Turkey, dialogue is essential. He acknowledges the need to work with Turkey as a guarantor power, as well as with other stakeholders.
Congratulations and readiness
Shortly after the results were confirmed in the north, President Nikos Christodoulides congratulated Tufan Erhürman and stated:
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He looks forward to meeting the new Turkish Cypriot leader as soon as possible.
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He reiterates his readiness to resume substantive negotiations from where they left off in Crans-Montana, in line with the declared commitment of UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
President Christodoulides also underscored the importance of the upcoming expanded informal meeting announced by the UN Secretary-General, calling it a crucial opportunity to restart the process.