Early talk of presidential elections has been a constant throughout the modern political life of the Republic of Cyprus. This time, however, the pre-election period is an unusual one. The protagonists are already trying to give their potential candidacies aims and political direction, while shaping the ground on which the battle will be fought. And this is happening at a time when the chances of any developments on the Cyprus problem, or even a single step forward, have largely run their course. In short, 17 months before the 2028 elections, early presidential manoeuvring has already become part of the daily political agenda. The paradox is that the first to appear to be moving in this environment is the President of the Republic himself, Nikos Christodoulides, even though he still says publicly that he has not taken a final decision on 2028 and that the matter will occupy him in 2027. He could not have said anything different, for the simple reason that it would not appear consistent with his declarations of sincere efforts on the Cyprus problem. Yet while he magnifies expectations of possible developments, he appears to be in essence captive to his own communications zeal, which is tied to his bid for re-election.
Keeping more than one door open
Christodoulides' political equation differs from that of the parties. As the sitting president, he has the advantage of institutional presence. At the same time, he must manage a difficult political environment after almost three and a half years in office, and within that framework convince voters that a second term is needed to complete his goals. His recent moves show that the Presidential Palace is seeking to keep open channels with more than one political camp. He is keeping Diko on alert, and has officially driven a wedge into the party, to the point where Diko officials serving in the government say categorically that the party already has a candidate in Christodoulides. Another group of officials, along with the party's leader, says decisions will be taken by Diko's formal bodies. It should not be overlooked, however, that almost half the Council of Ministers comes from Diko, and many in the party argue that the cooperation therefore remains active and that 2028 is part of the political equation, if only in the background. It is equally clear that no commitment to back the current president again exists.
The effort to stay in contact with the wider centrist space fits into the same plan. The recent change of leadership at Edek, with the election of 27-year-old Sofia Makri, opens a new period of consultations on future cooperation in the centre, and Diko, Edek and Dipa have already agreed to keep a channel of communication open. The key for Christodoulides, therefore, is to maintain a political geography in which he is not trapped exclusively in one party camp. This is where the particular nature of his relationship with Disy comes in.
The difficult equation in Disy
Disy faces a process that concerns not only who its presidential candidate will be, but also the party's own operating model after the crisis that followed the 2023 elections. Annita Demetriou appears to have a strong base of support among the party's grassroots. In a recent IMR survey for Reporter of 700 Disy members eligible to vote in internal elections, 58% favoured a standalone party candidacy. In a hypothetical internal contest, Demetriou polled 48%, Averof Neofytou 36% and Giorgos Pamboridis 7%. When Christodoulides is added to the scenario, however, the picture changes significantly, which shows how far the president has penetrated Disy's voter pool. If the major political issue within Disy is to be identified on this basis, and in light of Neofytou's latest statements about his own candidacy, then the party's candidate selection could turn from a process for choosing a candidate into a test of its cohesion.
As one long prepared
It is obvious that the former Disy leader has left open, but ever more visible, the possibility of his own candidacy. He has also tied his decisions to the course of the Cyprus problem. We literally do not know whether that condition will hold, not over the coming days but perhaps over the coming hours. This creates what the party describes as an extremely complex situation. On one side, there is the party process and a possible candidacy by Annita Demetriou. On the other, there is a former party leader who has not abandoned his own political path and appears determined to go all in. And in the background, there is Christodoulides, who still has access to part of Disy's base. The party's task in the coming months will therefore be to stick to a process that elects a candidate without producing an internal split at the same time. For now, Neofytou's latest statements about his intention to move regardless of the party's internal processes are causing, at the very least, unease within Disy.
The political framework comes first
Akel works on a different logic. The party does not appear to be in a hurry to lock in a name. It puts the political framework first and the candidate second. Secretary-General Stefanos Stefanou has made clear that the priority is programmatic convergence and the creation of a broader progressive pole. The Cyprus problem, the cost of living, housing and social policy more generally are the main pillars of the strategy the party leadership describes. On Andreas Mavroyiannis and the possibility of backing him again, the leadership considers it unproductive to rule him out, as it would be to rule out anyone else, since the party has not yet reached such decisions. Akel's stance will clearly not be shaped as a purely internal matter. The party is looking for a figure who can act as a bridge to other political forces, and the change it has made to its candidate selection procedure gives the leadership greater flexibility to seek a more broadly acceptable choice. The difficulty in this equation is that the party is engaged in an intensive exercise that remains, for now, on paper.
Three fronts
On the current picture, it is clear that the 2028 battle is taking shape on three main fronts. Christodoulides is trying to hold on to and widen the space that allowed him to govern as a candidate backed by different political pools. Diko is today an important part of that equation, but it has not definitively closed the question of its choice. Disy must decide whether to invest in a purely party candidacy, how to manage the coexistence of Annita Demetriou and Averof Neofytou and, above all, how to deal with the possibility that its former leader finally goes his own way. And Akel is trying to turn its electoral recovery in the recent parliamentary elections into a broader political alliance, looking for a figure who can reach beyond the party's narrow limits. The most interesting point is that none of the three camps has yet solved its equation, which is why the coming months will matter more for how the camps take shape than for the official start of the campaign.
The political narrative
The 2028 elections will not be decided by names alone. They will be decided by who manages to build the most functional political alliance, who can turn internal party balances into wider public appeal and, above all, who can place the Cyprus problem and everyday concerns in a political narrative that speaks beyond their traditional party base. This is precisely what is emerging: the campaign has already begun, but it revolves around something that is not yet a contest between candidates. For now, a battle is being fought in the open and behind the scenes over who the candidates will be, who their allies will be and which political spaces will remain available until the final stretch.
